Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis, Hanea Anca M., Nane Gabriela F., Bedford Tim
Автор: Hanea Anca M., Nane Gabriela F., Bedford Tim Название: Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis ISBN: 3030464733 ISBN-13(EAN): 9783030464738 Издательство: Springer Рейтинг: Цена: 139750.00 T Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ. Описание: and on specific experiences with SEJ protocols with the intention of presenting the challenges and insights collected during these journeys. Finally, the fourth (and largest) part begins with some reflections from Willy Aspinall on his many experiences in applying the Classical Model in several application domains;
Автор: Goodwin Paul Название: Decision Analysis for Management Judgement ISBN: 1118740734 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781118740736 Издательство: Wiley Рейтинг: Цена: 53800.00 T Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ. Описание: Decision Analysis for Management Judgment is unique in its breadth of coverage of decision analysis methods. It covers both the psychological problems that are associated with unaided managerial decision making and the decision analysis methods designed to overcome them.
Автор: Meena Thuraisingham Название: The Secret Life of Decisions: How Unconscious Bias Subverts Your Judgement ISBN: 1409453278 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781409453277 Издательство: Taylor&Francis Рейтинг: Цена: 51030.00 T Наличие на складе: Невозможна поставка. Описание: The Secret Life of Decisions exposes the unchallenged myths and distortions that impact our reasoning ability, raising our awareness of the many traps we can fall into. The authors have drawn from decades of work with leaders showing that even the most talented leaders and teams can end up making sub-optimal decisions.
Название: Multi-objective Decision Analysis: Managing Trade-offs and Uncertainty / Brownley, Clinton W / Business Expert Press ISBN: 160649452X ISBN-13(EAN): 9781606494523 Издательство: McGraw-Hill Цена: 24010.00 T Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ. Описание: Provides an analysis framework that helps structure the decision making process by identifying what information is needed for the decision, defining how that information should be combined and, finally, providing quantifiable evidence to clearly communicate and justify the final decision.
Автор: Adiel Teixeira de Almeida; Cristiano Alexandre Vir Название: Multicriteria and Multiobjective Models for Risk, Reliability and Maintenance Decision Analysis ISBN: 3319179683 ISBN-13(EAN): 9783319179681 Издательство: Springer Рейтинг: Цена: 121110.00 T Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ. Описание: Multicriteria and Multiobjective Models for Risk, Reliability and Maintenance Decision Analysis
Автор: Louis Anthony Cox Jr.; Douglas A. Popken; Richard Название: Causal Analytics for Applied Risk Analysis ISBN: 3030086534 ISBN-13(EAN): 9783030086534 Издательство: Springer Рейтинг: Цена: 279500.00 T Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ. Описание: Causal analytics methods can revolutionize the use of data to make effective decisions by revealing how different choices affect probabilities of various outcomes. This book presents and illustrates models, algorithms, principles, and software for deriving causal models from data and for using them to optimize decisions with uncertain outcomes. It discusses how to describe and summarize situations; detect changes; evaluate effects of policies or interventions; learn what works best under different conditions; predict values of as-yet unobserved quantities from available data; and identify the most likely explanations for observed outcomes, including surprises and anomalies. The book resents practical techniques for causal modeling and analytics that practitioners can apply to improve understanding of how choices affect probabilities of consequences and, based on this understanding, to recommend choices that are more likely to accomplish their intended objectives.
The book begins with a survey of modern analytics methods, focusing mainly on techniques useful for decision, risk, and policy analysis. Chapter 2 introduces free in-browser software, including the Causal Analytics Toolkit (CAT) software, to enable readers to perform the analyses described and to apply modern analytics methods easily to their own data sets. Chapters 3 through 11 show how to apply causal analytics and risk analytics to practical risk analysis challenges, mainly related to public and occupational health risks from pathogens in food or from pollutants in air. Chapters 12 through 15 turn to broader questions of how to improve risk management decision-making by individuals, groups, organizations, institutions, and multi-generation societies with different cultures and norms for cooperation. These chapters examine organizational learning, community resilience, societal risk management, and intergenerational collaboration and justice in managing risks.
Автор: Cox L Название: Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis ISBN: 1118217160 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781118217160 Издательство: Wiley Рейтинг: Цена: 116110.00 T Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ. Описание: With a simple and clear exposition, Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis details recent advances in the theory, methods, and applications of decision and risk analysis that can significantly change and improve how we learn from important practical decisions.
Автор: Adiel Teixeira de Almeida; Cristiano Alexandre Vir Название: Multicriteria and Multiobjective Models for Risk, Reliability and Maintenance Decision Analysis ISBN: 3319371576 ISBN-13(EAN): 9783319371573 Издательство: Springer Рейтинг: Цена: 121110.00 T Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ. Описание: Multiobjective and Multicriteria Problems and Decision Models.- Multiobjective and Multicriteria Decision Processes and Methods.- Basic Concepts on Risk Analysis, Reliability and Maintenance.- Multidimensional Risk Analysis.- Preventive Maintenance Decisions.- Decision Making in Condition-Based Maintenance.- Decision on Maintenance Outsourcing.- Spare Parts Planning Decisions.- Decision on Redundancy Allocation.- Design Selection Decisions.- Decisions on Priority Assignment for Maintenance Planning.- Other Risk, Reliability and Maintenance Decision Problems.
Автор: Dariush Khezrimotlagh; Yao Chen Название: Decision Making and Performance Evaluation Using Data Envelopment Analysis ISBN: 3030094723 ISBN-13(EAN): 9783030094720 Издательство: Springer Рейтинг: Цена: 74530.00 T Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ. Описание: This book offers new transparent views and step-by-step methods for performance evaluation of a set of units using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). The book has twelve practical chapters. Elementary concepts and definitions are gradually built in Chapters 1-6 based upon four examples of one input and one output factors, two input factors, two output factors, and four input and three output factors. Simultaneously, the mathematical foundations using linear programming are also introduced without any prerequisites. A reader with basic knowledge of mathematics and computers is able to understand the contents of the book. In addition, to prevent pre-judgment about the available concepts and definitions in the DEA literature, some new phrases are introduced and, after elucidating each phrase in detail in Chapters 1-6, they are reintroduced for industry-wide accuracy in Chapter 7. After that, some of the more advanced DEA topics are illustrated in Chapters 8-12, such as: production-planning problems, output-input ratio analysis, efficiency over different time periods, Malmquist efficiency indexes, and a delta neighborhood model.
A clear overview of many of the elementary and advanced concepts of DEA is provided, including Technical Efficiency, Relative Efficiency, Cost/Revenue/Profit Efficiency, Price/Overall Efficiency, the DEA axioms, the mathematical background to measure technical efficiency and overall efficiency, the multiplier/envelopment form of basic DEA models in input/output-orientation, the multiplier/envelopment of Additive DEA model, the multiplier/envelopment of slacks-based models, and others. The book also covers a variety of DEA techniques, input-output ratio analysis, the natural relationships between DEA frontier and the ratio of output to input factors, production-planning problems, planning ideas with a centralized decision-making unit, context-dependent DEA, Malmquist efficiency index, efficiency over different time periods, and others. End-of-chapter exercises are provided for each chapter.
Автор: Surafel Luleseged Tilahun, Jean Medard T. Ngnotchouye Название: Optimization Techniques for Problem Solving in Uncertainty ISBN: 1522550917 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781522550914 Издательство: Mare Nostrum (Eurospan) Рейтинг: Цена: 189420.00 T Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ. Описание: When it comes to optimization techniques, in some cases, the available information from real models may not be enough to construct either a probability distribution or a membership function for problem solving. In such cases, there are various theories that can be used to quantify the uncertain aspects.Optimization Techniques for Problem Solving in Uncertainty is a scholarly reference resource that looks at uncertain aspects involved in different disciplines and applications. Featuring coverage on a wide range of topics including uncertain preference, fuzzy multilevel programming, and metaheuristic applications, this book is geared towards engineers, managers, researchers, and post-graduate students seeking emerging research in the field of optimization.
Автор: Ahti Salo; Jeffrey Keisler; Alec Morton Название: Portfolio Decision Analysis ISBN: 1461429676 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781461429678 Издательство: Springer Рейтинг: Цена: 214280.00 T Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ. Описание: This book offers many-faceted, up-to-date coverage of decision analytic methods for allocation resources to `lumpy` investment opportunities in firms and public organizations where investment goes beyond purely discrete financial entities.
Stay alert and avoid being tricked. Apply logic and analysis to your everyday life. Detect hidden assumptions, spot inconsistencies, and recognize dishonesty.
The quality of our lives is determined by the quality of our thinking.
And the quality of our thinking is often determined by the quality questions we ask from ourselves.Critical thinking is the art of asking relevant, necessary, and meaningful questions to discover the objective truth behind words, events, and opinions in general.
Today we have more access to information than ever before. Information influences our world view and decisions often without us noticing it. Following wrong idols can lead us to bad decisions which lead to unhappiness and a dissatisfying life. When what's "right, beautiful, successful, and cool" gets dictated around us we often forget to think for ourselves and make our own choices. Thus we make bad decisions based on the opinion of others - not even our own.
Who should make your life choices for you? You've put your own thoughts, wishes, and opinions off for too long. It's time for that to change.
Models for Critical Thinking provides you with unique insights into the nature of thinking and reasoning - why are we often so wrong, why we are so inclined to avoid the responsibility of thinking for ourselves, and how can we develop solid, objective patterns of thought.
This book is a guide for the notoriously "trusting," "overwhelmed," and "gullible". It is a deep psychological dive into what makes us stop thinking for ourselves, and how to systematically combat those compulsions. It's a book that stands apart from others because of the plethora of real-life examples, studies, and solutions. If you wish to add to your critical thinking toolkit, you'll find the step-by-step answer in here.
Models for Critical Thinking lays out:
- The function of critical thinking and its main obstacles. - The varied elements of critical reasoning. - Important abilities and traits of critical thinkers. - The vocabulary of critical analysis, - The models essential to critical thinking.
The most secure way of making good decisions is to have well-practiced and predictable strategies that you can use when you are faced with a problem that requires deeper analysis.
This book will provide you with helpful exercises and tips to help you can find better solutions to your problems. - Learn the essential critical thinking skills when reading, writing, and speaking; - Be on your guard for hidden cognitive traps when shopping and interacting with advertisers. - Discover the tools and strategies can help you become a more disciplined thinker, developing your analytical, reasoning, and reflective thinking skills.
Be ready to learn. Be ready to argue intellectually.
- Learn to read between the lines and assess the validity of statements. - Identify and separate logical and illogical reasoning. - Learn how to construct a fair, well-reasoned argument with the help of formal and informal logic.
As a physicist and computer scientist, I was always looking for logical, well-founded answers to questions. Yet, I needed to stay open to question my knowledge fairly often, revise my beliefs held, and unlearn some.
Казахстан, 010000 г. Астана, проспект Туран 43/5, НП2 (офис 2) ТОО "Логобук" Тел:+7 707 857-29-98 ,+7(7172) 65-23-70 www.logobook.kz
