Tests whether the analysis of competing hypotheses reduces cognitive bias, and proposes a more effective approach
Reveals that a key element of current training provided to the UK and US intelligence communities (and likely all 5-EYES and several European agencies) does not have a proven ability to mitigate cognitive biases
Demonstrates that judging the credibility of information from human sources means that intelligence analysis faces greater complexity and cognitive strain than non-intelligence analysis
Explains the underlying causes cognitive biases, based on meta-analyses of existing research
Shows that identifying the ideal conditions for intelligence analysis is a more effective way of reducing the risk of cognitive bias than the use of ACH
Recent high-profile intelligence failures – from 9/11 to the 2003 Iraq war – prove that cognitive bias in intelligence analysis can have catastrophic consequences. This book critiques the reliance of Western intelligence agencies on the use of a method for intelligence analysis developed by the CIA in the 1990s, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH). The author puts ACH to the test in an experimental setting against two key cognitive biases with unique empirical research facilitated by UK’s Professional Heads of Intelligence Analysis unit at the Cabinet Office, and finds that the theoretical basis of the ACH method is significantly flawed. Combining the insight of a practitioner with over 11 years of experience in intelligence with both philosophical theory and experimental research, the author proposes an alternative approach to mitigating cognitive bias that focuses on creating the optimum environment for analysis, challenging current leading theories.
Tests whether the analysis of competing hypotheses reduces cognitive bias, and proposes a more effective approach
Reveals that a key element of current training provided to the UK and US intelligence communities (and likely all 5-EYES and several European agencies) does not have a proven ability to mitigate cognitive biases
Demonstrates that judging the credibility of information from human sources means that intelligence analysis faces greater complexity and cognitive strain than non-intelligence analysis
Explains the underlying causes cognitive biases, based on meta-analyses of existing research
Shows that identifying the ideal conditions for intelligence analysis is a more effective way of reducing the risk of cognitive bias than the use of ACH
Recent high-profile intelligence failures – from 9/11 to the 2003 Iraq war – prove that cognitive bias in intelligence analysis can have catastrophic consequences. This book critiques the reliance of Western intelligence agencies on the use of a method for intelligence analysis developed by the CIA in the 1990s, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH). The author puts ACH to the test in an experimental setting against two key cognitive biases with unique empirical research facilitated by UK’s Professional Heads of Intelligence Analysis unit at the Cabinet Office, and finds that the theoretical basis of the ACH method is significantly flawed. Combining the insight of a practitioner with over 11 years of experience in intelligence with both philosophical theory and experimental research, the author proposes an alternative approach to mitigating cognitive bias that focuses on creating the optimum environment for analysis, challenging current leading theories.
Автор: Shannon Holzer Название: Competing Schemas Within the American Liberal Democracy: An Interdisciplinary Analysis of Differing Perceptions of Church and State ISBN: 1433133822 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781433133824 Издательство: Peter Lang Рейтинг: Цена: 116770.00 T Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ. Описание: Competing Schemas Within the American Liberal Democracy is a compelling book that dispels many of the common myths concerning Church and State. This book shows that how one approaches the subject of religion and politics largely determines what types of conclusions one will draw. Shannon Holzer is not concerned with creating a polemic. Instead, he shows that the subject of Church and State is much wider in scope than strict separationists would have one believe. When most scholars write on the subject of religion and politics they do so from a single academic discipline. The strength of this book lays in the fact that Dr. Holzer is an accomplished scholar in many different academic disciplines and can approach this complex subject from several different areas of inquiry. In doing so, Dr. Holzer offers a more comprehensive approach to the subject. This book makes use of the many relevant disciplines regarding Church and State, including: history, political theory, philosophy of religion, epistemology, legal theory, and history. As such, this text can be used in a multitude of subjects. Scholars will find Competing Schemas Within the American Liberal Democracy to be intellectually stimulating while clearly written and easily comprehended. Whether in the classroom or in one’s personal library, this book is necessary for those who are interested in the highly contentious and often misunderstood subject of Church and State.
Автор: Ronald B. Geskus Название: Data Analysis With Competing Risks And Intermediate States ISBN: 1466570350 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781466570351 Издательство: Taylor&Francis Рейтинг: Цена: 78590.00 T Наличие на складе: Невозможна поставка. Описание:
Data Analysis with Competing Risks and Intermediate States explains when and how to use models and techniques for the analysis of competing risks and intermediate states. It covers the most recent insights on estimation techniques and discusses in detail how to interpret the obtained results.
After introducing example studies from the biomedical and epidemiological fields, the book formally defines the concepts that play a role in analyses with competing risks and intermediate states. It addresses nonparametric estimation of the relevant quantities. The book then shows how to use a stacked data set that offers great flexibility in the modeling of covariable effects on the transition rates between states. It also describes three ways to quantify effects on the cumulative scale.
Each chapter includes standard exercises that reflect on the concepts presented, a section on software that explains options in SAS and Stata and the functionality in the R program, and computer practicals that allow readers to practice with the techniques using an existing data set of bone marrow transplant patients. The book's website provides the R code for the computer practicals along with other material.
For researchers with some experience in the analysis of standard time-to-event data, this practical and thorough treatment extends their knowledge and skills to the competing risks and multi-state settings. Researchers from other fields can also easily translate individuals and diseases to units and phenomena from their own areas.
Автор: Lee Название: Competing Discourses ISBN: 1138466794 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781138466791 Издательство: Taylor&Francis Рейтинг: Цена: 199050.00 T Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ. Описание: Part of a sociolinguistics series about language use in the real world, and about the relationships between language, society and social change. The author argues for an approach that takes linguistic practice to be the primary medium through which social processes operate.
Автор: Wellek, Stefan (central Institute Of Mental Health, Mannheim, And University Of Heidelberg, Germany) Название: Testing statistical hypotheses of equivalence and noninferiority ISBN: 143980818X ISBN-13(EAN): 9781439808184 Издательство: Taylor&Francis Рейтинг: Цена: 148010.00 T Наличие на складе: Нет в наличии. Описание: Focusing on methods of testing for two-sided equivalence, this title gives attention to noninferiority testing. It covers a spectrum of equivalence testing problems of both types, ranging from a one-sample problem with normally distributed observations of fixed known variance to problems involving several dependent or independent samples.
Автор: P. Bauer; G. Hommel; E. Sonnemann Название: Multiple Hypothesenpr?fung / Multiple Hypotheses Testing ISBN: 3540505598 ISBN-13(EAN): 9783540505594 Издательство: Springer Рейтинг: Цена: 81050.00 T Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ. Описание: Der vorliegende Band fat die Ergebnisse eines zweitagigen Symposions "Multiple Hypothesenprufung" am 6. und 7. November 1987 in Gerolstein/ Eifel zusammen. Das Problem der multiplen Hypothesenprufung stellt sich immer dann, wenn aufgrund eines statistischen Experimentes mehrere Fragestellungen beantwortet werden sollen. Insbesondere innerhalb biologisch-medizi- nischer Studien sind haufig mehrere Behandlungen, mehrere Zielgroen oder Messungen zu mehreren Zeitpunkten zu beurteilen. In der Vergangenheit wurde dem Problem der Multiplizitat der Fragestel- lungen nicht genugend Beachtung geschenkt. Im deutschsprachigen Raum erschien dieses Thema etwa ab Ende der 70er Jahre vermehrt auf Kongres- sen sowie in Veroffentlichungen, ausgelost durch die Arbeiten von MARCUS, PERITZ und GABRIEL (1976) und HOLM (1979). Besonders durch das Schwerpunkuhema "Simultane Hypothesenprufung" und die gemein- same Publikation der Referate im Rahmen des Biometrischen Seminars im Jahre 1981 in Bad Ischl, Osterreich, wurde die Aufmerksamkeit vieler Biometriker auf neuere Entwicklungen in diesem fur die Anwendung so wichtigen Bereich gelenkt. In der Folge kam es zu einer intensiven For- schungstatigkeit an den verschiedensten Stellen, vorwiegend von Biometr- kern und von Statistikern mit engem Verhaltnis zur Biometrie. Es war daher naheliegend zu versuchen, die in diesem Bereich methodisch tatigen Biometriker und Statistiker zu einem intensiven Meinungsaus- tausch zusammenzubringen. Dabei sollte eine Bestandsaufnahme vorge- nommen und uber die Richtung weiterer Entwicklungen diskutiert werden. Schon wahrend des Symposions wurde von emlgen Teilnehmern der Vor- schlag gemacht, den Tagungsband in englischer Sprache abzufassen, um IV den Ergebnissen international eine groere Verbreitung zu ermoglichen.
Автор: Lehmann Название: Testing Statistical Hypotheses ISBN: 0387988645 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780387988641 Издательство: Springer Рейтинг: Цена: 79190.00 T Наличие на складе: Нет в наличии. Описание: This classic textbook, now available from Springer, summarizes developments in the field of hypotheses testing. Optimality considerations continue to provide the organizing principle. However, they are now tempered by a much stronger emphasis on the robustness properties of the resulting procedures. This book is an essential reference for any graduate student in statistics.
Автор: Lehmann, Erich L. Romano, Joseph P. Название: Testing statistical hypotheses ISBN: 1441931783 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781441931788 Издательство: Amazon Internet Рейтинг: Цена: 113210.00 T Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ. Описание: The Third Edition of Testing Statistical Hypotheses brings it into consonance with the Second Edition of its companion volume on point estimation (Lehmann and Casella, 1998) to which we shall refer as TPE2. We won't here comment on the long history of the book which is recounted in Lehmann (1997) but shall use this Preface to indicate the principal changes from the 2nd Edition. The present volume is divided into two parts. Part I (Chapters 1-10) treats small-sample theory, while Part II (Chapters 11-15) treats large-sample theory. The preface to the 2nd Edition stated that "the most important omission is an adequate treatment of optimality paralleling that given for estimation in TPE." We shall here remedy this failure by treating the di?cult topic of asymptotic optimality (in Chapter 13) together with the large-sample tools needed for this purpose (in Chapters 11 and 12). Having developed these tools, we use them in Chapter 14 to give a much fuller treatment of tests of goodness of 't than was possible in the 2nd Edition, and in Chapter 15 to provide an introduction to the bootstrap and related techniques. Various large-sample considerations that in the Second Edition were discussed in earlier chapters now have been moved to Chapter 11.
Автор: Reichardt Charles S. Название: The Method of Multiple Hypotheses: A Guide for Professional and Academic Researchers ISBN: 1032056231 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781032056234 Издательство: Taylor&Francis Рейтинг: Цена: 148010.00 T Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ. Описание: This book illustrates the method of multiple hypotheses with detailed examples and describes the limitations facing all methods (including the method of multiple hypotheses) as the means for constructing knowledge about nature.
Автор: Gill Peter, Marrin Stephen, Phythian Mark Название: Developing Intelligence Theory: New Challenges and Competing Perspectives ISBN: 0367582422 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780367582425 Издательство: Taylor&Francis Рейтинг: Цена: 42870.00 T Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ. Описание: Developing Intelligence Theory analyses the current state of intelligence theorisation, provides a guide to a range of approaches and perspectives, and points towards future research agendas in this field. This book was originally published as a special issue of Intelligence and National Security.
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