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Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis: Testing the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Method, Whitesmith Martha


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Автор: Whitesmith Martha
Название:  Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis: Testing the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Method
ISBN: 9781474466349
Издательство: Bloomsbury Academic
Классификация:



ISBN-10: 1474466346
Обложка/Формат: Hardback
Страницы: 304
Вес: 0.60 кг.
Дата издания: 30.09.2020
Серия: Intelligence, surveillance and secret warfare
Язык: English
Размер: 162 x 240 x 25
Читательская аудитория: Professional and scholarly
Ключевые слова: Cognition & cognitive psychology,Espionage & secret services
Подзаголовок: Improving analytical efforts for national intelligence
Рейтинг:
Поставляется из: Англии
Описание:

Tests whether the analysis of competing hypotheses reduces cognitive bias, and proposes a more effective approach

  • Reveals that a key element of current training provided to the UK and US intelligence communities (and likely all 5-EYES and several European agencies) does not have a proven ability to mitigate cognitive biases
  • Demonstrates that judging the credibility of information from human sources means that intelligence analysis faces greater complexity and cognitive strain than non-intelligence analysis
  • Explains the underlying causes cognitive biases, based on meta-analyses of existing research
  • Shows that identifying the ideal conditions for intelligence analysis is a more effective way of reducing the risk of cognitive bias than the use of ACH

Recent high-profile intelligence failures – from 9/11 to the 2003 Iraq war – prove that cognitive bias in intelligence analysis can have catastrophic consequences. This book critiques the reliance of Western intelligence agencies on the use of a method for intelligence analysis developed by the CIA in the 1990s, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH). The author puts ACH to the test in an experimental setting against two key cognitive biases with unique empirical research facilitated by UK’s Professional Heads of Intelligence Analysis unit at the Cabinet Office, and finds that the theoretical basis of the ACH method is significantly flawed. Combining the insight of a practitioner with over 11 years of experience in intelligence with both philosophical theory and experimental research, the author proposes an alternative approach to mitigating cognitive bias that focuses on creating the optimum environment for analysis, challenging current leading theories.



Intelligence Governance and Democratisation: A comparative analysis of the limits of reform

Автор: Peter Gill
Название: Intelligence Governance and Democratisation: A comparative analysis of the limits of reform
ISBN: 1138649678 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781138649675
Издательство: Taylor&Francis
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Цена: 54090.00 T
Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: This book analyses changes in intelligence governance and offers a comparative analysis of intelligence democratisation, focusing on Latin America and Europe.

Intelligence and Security Oversight: An Annotated Bibliography and Comparative Analysis

Автор: Richardson Sophie, Gilmour Nicholas
Название: Intelligence and Security Oversight: An Annotated Bibliography and Comparative Analysis
ISBN: 3319807617 ISBN-13(EAN): 9783319807614
Издательство: Springer
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Цена: 51230.00 T
Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: Intelligence andSecurity Oversight: An Annotated Bibliography and Comparative Analysis comprehensivelydemonstrates the powers and limitations placed with, and on, oversight bodies,appealing to academics, researchers and practitioners in the intelligence andsecurity environment.

Curing Analytic Pathologies: Pathways to Improved Intelligence Analysis

Автор: Olivier C Fitch, Ryan A Sadler
Название: Curing Analytic Pathologies: Pathways to Improved Intelligence Analysis
ISBN: 1626182795 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781626182790
Издательство: Nova Science
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Цена: 89750.00 T
Наличие на складе: Невозможна поставка.
Описание: This book presents, for the first time, a comprehensive analysis and assessment of sustainability of the contemporary civil air transport system, examining its three main components: airports, air traffic control, and airlines. It offers an in-depth examination and quantitative insight into the system`s current and prospective structure and operations, as well as the related effects and impacts.

Intelligence Analysis Fundamentals

Автор: Garner Godfrey, McGlynn Patrick
Название: Intelligence Analysis Fundamentals
ISBN: 0367778645 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780367778644
Издательство: Taylor&Francis
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Цена: 64300.00 T
Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: Intelligence Analysis Fundamentals is an introductory, accessible text and concepts are presented to correlate with intelligence gathering and analysis performed in law enforcement, homeland security, and corporate and business security roles.

Quantitative intelligence analysis

Автор: Waltz, Edward
Название: Quantitative intelligence analysis
ISBN: 0810895463 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780810895461
Издательство: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers
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Цена: 42240.00 T
Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: The text explains the model-based method of intelligence analysis that represents the analyst`s mental models of a subject as well as the analyst`s reasoning process. It includes dynamic simulations and interactive analytic games, case studies that illustrate a wide range of intelligence problems, and a recommended curriculum for technical analysts.

Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach

Автор: Robert M. Clark
Название: Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach
ISBN: 154436914X ISBN-13(EAN): 9781544369143
Издательство: Sage Publications
Цена: 70750.00 T
Наличие на складе: Поставка под заказ.
Описание: Now in its Sixth Edition , Robert M. Clark's  Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach  once again delivers a consistent, clear method for teaching intelligence analysis—demonstrating how a collaborative, target-centric approach leads to sharper and more effective analysis. This bestseller also includes new end-of-chapter questions to spark classroom discussion, as well as material on the intelligence cycle, collection, managing analysis, and dealing with intelligence customers. Clark’s practical approach combined with his insider perspective create the ideal resource for students and practitioners alike.

Quantitative Intelligence Analysis: Applied Analytic Models, Simulations and Games

Автор: Waltz Edward
Название: Quantitative Intelligence Analysis: Applied Analytic Models, Simulations and Games
ISBN: 1442235861 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781442235861
Издательство: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers
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Цена: 129530.00 T
Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: The text explains the model-based method of intelligence analysis that represents the analyst`s mental models of a subject as well as the analyst`s reasoning process. It includes dynamic simulations and interactive analytic games, case studies that illustrate a wide range of intelligence problems, and a recommended curriculum for technical analysts.

Intelligence Analysis: Unclassified Area & Point Estimates (& Other Intelligence Related Topics)

Автор: John Michael Weaver, Jennifer Pomeroy
Название: Intelligence Analysis: Unclassified Area & Point Estimates (& Other Intelligence Related Topics)
ISBN: 1536100927 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781536100921
Издательство: Nova Science
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Цена: 191130.00 T
Наличие на складе: Невозможна поставка.
Описание: Globalisation has impacted the world with a seemingly inextricable linkage among all countries on this planet. This publication provides an intelligence analysis of regions and countries from around the world that are specified in the latest National Security Strategy of the United States. These regions and countries are dissected using predominately qualitative analysis techniques, focusing on secondary data sources in order to provide and open a source intelligence look at threats as seen by the United States. Moreover, this book looks at other contemporary intelligence-related issues from other authors as well. The key audience for this book include the seventeen members of the U.S. intelligence community, governments of other countries that share the United States assessment of current threats, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) looking to provide support abroad, and private sector companies looking to expand their operations overseas.

Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis

Автор: Randolph H. Pherson, Richards J. Heuer Jr.
Название: Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis
ISBN: 150636893X ISBN-13(EAN): 9781506368931
Издательство: Sage Publications
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Цена: 140450.00 T
Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: The Third Edition of Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis by Randolph H. Pherson and Richards J. Heuer Jr showcases sixty-six structured analytic techniques—nine new to this edition—that represent the most current best practices in intelligence, law enforcement, homeland security, and business analysis. With more depth, detail, and utility than existing handbooks, each technique is clearly and systematically explained. Logically organized and richly illustrated, and with spiral binding and tabs that separate techniques into categories, this book is an easy-to-use, comprehensive reference.

Scientific Methods of Inquiry for Intelligence Analysis

Автор: Prunckun Hank
Название: Scientific Methods of Inquiry for Intelligence Analysis
ISBN: 1442224312 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781442224315
Издательство: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers
Рейтинг:
Цена: 154880.00 T
Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: Since 9/11, the needs of intelligence agencies as well as the missions they conduct have increased in number, size, and complexity. This expanded and updated edition offers a way of gaining the analytic skills essential to undertake intelligence work. It acquaints students a...


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