Layla: Born at Night, Gardner D. L.

Автор: Gardner, Dan
Название: Future Babble
ISBN: 0753522373 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780753522370
Издательство: Random House - Penguin
Рейтинг:
Цена: 14070.00 T
Наличие на складе: Невозможна поставка.
Описание: In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future. This book examines this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future.

Автор: Tetlock Philip E., Gardner Dan
Название: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
ISBN: 0804136718 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780804136716
Издательство: Random House (USA)
Рейтинг:
Цена: 11030.00 T
Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: A New York Times Bestseller
An Economist Best Book of 2015
"The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow."
--Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal
Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?
In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."
In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course.
Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic.

Автор: Fox Gardner, Johns Geoff
Название: The Flash: A Celebration of 75 Years
ISBN: 1401251781 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781401251789
Издательство: Random House (USA)
Рейтинг:
Цена: 21450.00 T
Наличие на складе: Нет в наличии.
Описание: Collects a range of stories featuring the Scarlet Speedster, ranging his seven decades as a mainstay in the DC Comics universe. From the original Flash, Jay Garrick, to his successors Barry Allen and Wally West, the mantle of this beloved hero has made him burst beyond the printed page into a pop culture symbol.

Автор: Peter Gardner
Название: New Directions Second edition Teacher`s Manual
ISBN: 0521541735 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780521541732
Издательство: Cambridge University Press
Рейтинг:
Цена: 33850.00 T
Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: The Teacher`s Manual contains teaching suggestions and an answer key for the Student`s Book.

Автор: Gardner Erle Stanley
Название: Knife Slipped
ISBN: 1783299274 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781783299270
Издательство: Titan books ltd.
Рейтинг:
Цена: 8260.00 T
Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: Lost for more than 75 years, The Knife Slipped is a glorious return to the heyday of private eyes and shady dames, of powerful criminals, crooked cops, blazing dialogue, and delicious.

Автор: Gardner, Lisa
Название: Alone
ISBN: 0553584537 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780553584530
Издательство: Random House (USA)
Цена: 5510.00 T
Наличие на складе: Нет в наличии.
Описание: Alone . . . Massachusetts State Trooper Bobby Dodge watches a tense hostage standoff unfold through the scope of his sniper rifle. Just across the street, in wealthy Back Bay, Boston, an armed man has barricaded himself with his wife and child. The man's finger tightens on the trigger and Dodge has only a split second to react . . . and forever pay the consequences.

Alone . . . that's where the nightmare began for cool, beautiful, and dangerously sexy Catherine Rose Gagnon. Twenty-five years ago, she was buried underground during a month-long nightmare of abduction and abuse. Now her husband has just been killed. Her father-in-law, the powerful Judge Gagnon, blames Catherine for his son's death . . . and for the series of unexplained illnesses that have sent her own young son repeatedly to the hospital.

Alone . . . a madman survived solitary confinement in a maximum security prison where he'd done hard time for the most sadistic of crimes. Now he walks the streets a free man, invisible, anonymous . . . and filled with an unquenchable rage for vengeance. What brings them together is a moment of violence--but what connects them is a passion far deeper and much more dangerous. For a killer is loose who's woven such an intricate web of evil that no one is above suspicion, no one is beyond harm, and no one will see death coming until it has them cornered, helpless, and alone.

Автор: Ed. George R.R. Martin and Gardner Dozois
Название: Songs of the dying earth
ISBN: 0007277490 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780007277490
Издательство: HarperCollins UK
Рейтинг:
Цена: 7910.00 T
Наличие на складе: Невозможна поставка.
Описание: Return to the unique and evocative world of The Dying Earth, edited by best-selling author George R. R. Martin, in this tribute anthology featuring the most distinguished fantasists of our day. Here are twenty-two brand-new adventures set in the world of Jack Vance`s greatest novel.

Автор: Dozois Gardner
Название: Mammoth Book of Best New Sf 25
ISBN: 1780338821 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781780338828
Издательство: Little Brown
Рейтинг:
Цена: 10110.00 T
Наличие на складе: Поставка под заказ.
Описание: The 25th edition of the must have annual collection of SF.

Автор: Gardner Ava
Название: Ava Gardner
ISBN: 1471101150 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781471101151
Издательство: Неизвестно
Рейтинг:
Цена: 10550.00 T
Наличие на складе: Невозможна поставка.
Описание: The irresistibly candid memoir of film legend Ava Gardner, which she would not permit to be published during her lifetime, finally brought to print.

Автор: Gardner Paul, Nguyen Hoang
Название: Carbon Grey Omnibus Collection
ISBN: 1632158493 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781632158499
Издательство: Image Comics
Рейтинг:
Цена: 23500.00 T
Наличие на складе: Невозможна поставка.
Описание: "LEGENDS OF THE GREYS"
The Sisters Grey are warriors, sworn to protect their Kaiser. But as great war rages, the Kaiser is found dead, and one sister - Giselle Grey - is accused of murder. Persued by enemies, Giselle must unravel the prophecy of the Carbon Grey - before history itself unravels. This collection includes all three volumes of the epic saga, stories from CARBON GREY: ORIGINS, and a new ten-page prologue.

Автор: Gardner, Howard
Название: Mind`s new science
ISBN: 0465046355 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780465046355
Издательство: Little Brown
Рейтинг:
Цена: 25290.00 T
Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: The first full-scale history of cognitive science, this work addresses a central issue: What is the nature of knowledge?

Автор: Gardner, Erle Stanley (Based on a Book by), Robbins, Jerry (Featuring), Colonial Radio Players (Featuring)
Название: Perry Mason and the Case of the Howling Dog
ISBN: 1455821977 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781455821976
Издательство: Неизвестно
Цена: 9950.00 T
Наличие на складе: Невозможна поставка.