Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, Tetlock Philip E., Gardner Dan

Автор: Tetlock, Philip & Gardner, Dan
Название: Superforecasting
ISBN: 1847947158 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781847947154
Издательство: Random House - Penguin
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Цена: 9670.00 T
Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: Tetlock`s latest project - an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions - has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight.

Автор: Tetlock, Philip, Gardner, Dan
Название: Superforecasters
ISBN: 184794714X ISBN-13(EAN): 9781847947147
Издательство: Random House - Penguin
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Цена: 13190.00 T
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Описание: What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? This book offers an insight into what we can learn from this elite group. It also shows the methods used by the superforecasters which enable them to out perform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data.

Автор: Philip E. Tetlock
Название: Superforecasting: The Art And Science Of Prediction
ISBN: 0804136696 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780804136693
Издательство: Random House (USA)
Цена: 17170.00 T
Наличие на складе: Невозможна поставка.
Описание: A New York Times Bestseller
An Economist Best Book of 2015
"The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow."
--Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal
Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?
In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."
In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course.
Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic.