Philip E. Tetlock Superforecasting: The Art And Science Of Prediction 9780804136693

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Автор: Philip E. Tetlock
Название: Superforecasting: The Art And Science Of Prediction
Перевод названия: Филип И. Тетлок: Суперпредсказание. Искусство и наука предсказывать
ISBN: 9780804136693
Издательство: Random House (USA)
Классификация:

Экономическое прогнозирование

ISBN-10: 0804136696
Обложка/Формат: Hardcover
Страницы: 352
Вес: 0.54 кг.
Дата издания: 29.09.2015
Язык: English
Поставляется из: США
Описание: A New York Times Bestseller
An Economist Best Book of 2015
The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahnemans Thinking, Fast and Slow.
--Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal
Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the weeks meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?
In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. Theyve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. Theyve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are superforecasters.
In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Ladens compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesnt require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course.
Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic.

Superforecasting: The Art And Science Of Prediction, Philip E. Tetlock