Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers, Kay John, King Mervyn
Автор: V.T. Covello; Lester B. Lave; Alan Moghissi; V.R.R Название: Uncertainty in Risk Assessment, Risk Management, and Decision Making ISBN: 146845319X ISBN-13(EAN): 9781468453195 Издательство: Springer Рейтинг: Цена: 113190.00 T Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ. Описание: Proceedings of the Society for Risk Analysis International Workshop held in Knoxville, Tennessee, September 30-October 3, 1984
Автор: Kay John, King Mervyn Название: Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers ISBN: 1324004770 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781324004776 Издательство: Wiley Рейтинг: Цена: 24280.00 T Наличие на складе: Поставка под заказ. Описание:
Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry's actuarial tables and the gambler's roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no-one--not least Steve Jobs--knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package--what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?--demonstrate only that their advice is worthless.
The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit.
Автор: Szpiro George G. Название: Risk, Choice, and Uncertainty: Three Centuries of Economic Decision-Making ISBN: 0231194749 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780231194747 Издательство: Wiley Рейтинг: Цена: 29570.00 T Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ. Описание: Risk, Choice, and Uncertainty offers a new narrative of the three-century history of the study of decision making, tracing how crucial ideas have evolved and telling the stories of the thinkers who shaped the field. George G. Szpiro examines economics from theories of optimal decision making to behavioral science.
Автор: Todd Schenk Название: Adapting Infrastructure to Climate Change: Advancing Decision-Making Under Conditions of Uncertainty ISBN: 0367192977 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780367192976 Издательство: Taylor&Francis Рейтинг: Цена: 46950.00 T Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ. Описание: This book will draw on case studies of three coastal cities situated within very different governance regimes: Rotterdam, Boston and Singapore. It examines how infrastructure managers and other stakeholders are grappling with complex and uncertain climate risks.
Автор: Van-Nam Huynh; Masahiro Inuiguchi; Thierry Demoeux Название: Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making ISBN: 3319251341 ISBN-13(EAN): 9783319251349 Издательство: Springer Рейтинг: Цена: 67080.00 T Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ. Описание: Offers a general participation assessment across five levels of participation and cooperation and the specific behaviours that make up these five levels. The manual details instructions on how to administer the Social Profile, describes how the assessment was developed, and summarized research to support its use. Also included are 14 case studies that illustrate how the Social Profile can be used.
Автор: Vladik Kreinovich Название: Decision Making under Interval Uncertainty ISBN: 3110301768 ISBN-13(EAN): 9783110301762 Издательство: Walter de Gruyter Цена: 148700.00 T Наличие на складе: Невозможна поставка. Описание: This book is about how to make decisions – mathematically based. Topics in focus are: How to elicit users' preferences. How to select the best alternatives. Which characteristics should we select when describing probabilities? Decision making under interval uncertainty. What if we cannot even elicit interval-valued uncertainty.
Автор: Mohammed Abdellaoui; John D. Hey Название: Advances in Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty ISBN: 3642088007 ISBN-13(EAN): 9783642088001 Издательство: Springer Рейтинг: Цена: 139750.00 T Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ. Описание: Uncertainty and Information Modeling.- Revealed Ambiguity and Its Consequences: Updating.- Dynamic Decision Making When Risk Perception Depends on Past Experience.- Representation of Conditional Preferences Under Uncertainty.- Subjective Information in Decision Making and Communication.- Risk Modeling.- Sensitivity Analysis in Decision Making: A Consistent Approach.- Alternation Bias and the Parameterization of Cumulative Prospect Theory.- Proposing a Normative Basis for the S-Shaped Value Function.- Experimental Individual Decision Making.- Individual Choice from a Convex Lottery Set: Experimental Evidence.- Temptations and Dynamic Consistency.- Monty Hall's Three Doors for Dummies.- Overconfidence in Predictions as an Effect of Desirability Bias.- Experimental Interactive Decision Making.- Granny Versus Game Theorist: Ambiguity in Experimental Games.- Guessing Games and People Behaviours: What Can We Learn?.- The Determinants of Individual Behaviour in Network Formation: Some Experimental Evidence.
Автор: Mowles Название: Managing in Uncertainty ISBN: 1138843733 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781138843738 Издательство: Taylor&Francis Рейтинг: Цена: 148010.00 T Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ. Описание: This book argues that paradox, ambiguity and uncertainty in organizational life are the norm rather than the exception for leaders and managers. Drawing on insights from the complexity sciences, process sociology and pragmatic philosophy, Chris Mowles directly engages with some principal contradictions of organizational life concerning innovation, culture change, conflict and leadership.
Автор: Huynh Название: Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making ISBN: 3319754289 ISBN-13(EAN): 9783319754284 Издательство: Springer Рейтинг: Цена: 46570.00 T Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ. Описание: This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 6th International Symposium on Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making, IUKM 2018, held in Hanoi, Vietnam, in March 2018.The 39 revised full papers presented in this book were carefully reviewed and selected from 76 initial submissions.
Автор: Consigli Giorgio, Kuhn Daniel, Brandimarte Paolo Название: Optimal Financial Decision Making Under Uncertainty ISBN: 3319823965 ISBN-13(EAN): 9783319823966 Издательство: Springer Рейтинг: Цена: 139750.00 T Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ. Описание: The scope of this volume is primarily to analyze from different methodological perspectives similar valuation and optimization problems arising in financial applications, aimed at facilitating a theoretical and computational integration between methods largely regarded as alternatives.
Автор: Petrakis Название: Uncertainty in Entrepreneurial Decision Making ISBN: 1137460784 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781137460783 Издательство: Springer Рейтинг: Цена: 102480.00 T Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ. Описание: Uncertainty in Entrepreneurial Decision Making fills an existing gap in understanding three key concepts of business management: entrepreneurship, uncertainty, and strategy.
Автор: Karni, Edi Название: Decision making under uncertainty ISBN: 0674493990 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780674493995 Издательство: Wiley Рейтинг: Цена: 58030.00 T Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ. Описание:
"But Mama, but Mama, what if I were a super smelly skunk, and I smelled so bad that my name was Stinky Face?"Mothers love their children and this unconditional love is truly tested in I LOVE YOU, STINKY FACE. Lisa McCourt and Cyd Moore beautifully weave a reassuring tale of the love and affection of a parent. The imaginative son turns himself into a meat-eating dinosaur, a swamp creature and much, much more before being satisfied with the fact that no matter how stinky he is or how slimy of a creature he could possibly be, he is loved and nothing will change that.
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