Автор: Tetlock Philip E. Название: Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? ISBN: 0691175977 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780691175973 Издательство: Wiley Рейтинг: Цена: 23230.00 T Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ. Описание:
Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion.
etlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat.
Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.
Автор: Jouvenel, Bertrand De Название: Sovereignty ISBN: 0865971730 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780865971738 Издательство: Gazelle Book Services Рейтинг: Цена: 15660.00 T Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ. Описание: An examination of the nature and history of authority, the political good, the sovereign and liberty. The foreword places the author`s work in the context of his entire corpus.
Автор: Trampus Antonio Название: Emer de Vattel and the Politics of Good Government: Constitutionalism, Small States and the International System ISBN: 3030480267 ISBN-13(EAN): 9783030480264 Издательство: Springer Рейтинг: Цена: 83850.00 T Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ. Описание: This book explores the history of the international order in the eighteenth and nineteenth century through a new study of Emer de Vattel`s Droit des gens (1758).
Автор: Menozzi Filippo Название: World Literature, Non-Synchronism, and the Politics of Time ISBN: 303041700X ISBN-13(EAN): 9783030417000 Издательство: Springer Рейтинг: Цена: 46570.00 T Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ. Описание: Drawing on a Marxist concept of world literature, this book is a study of the manipulations of time in contemporary anglophone fiction from Africa and South Asia.
Автор: Rao Rahul Название: Out of Time: The Queer Politics of Postcoloniality ISBN: 0190865512 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780190865511 Издательство: Oxford Academ Рейтинг: Цена: 152890.00 T Наличие на складе: Нет в наличии. Описание: ITIL(R) 4 Managing Professional CoursewareITIL 4 Managing Professional (ITIL MP) consists of four modules and is the next level of ITIL 4 to be released after ITIL 4 Foundation. ITIL MP targets IT practitioners working within technology and digital teams across businesses. The Managing Professional (MP) stream provides practical and technical knowledge about how to run successful IT-enabled services, teams and workflows. The Managing Professional Transition module is designed to allow ITIL v3 candidates to easily transition to ITIL 4. They can get the ITIL 4 Managing Professional designation through one course and one exam. The material includes;¢ Updated glossaries with highlighted changes for `Create, Deliver & Support`, `Drive Stakeholder Value` and `Direct, Plan & Improve`¢ New diagram packs with annotations for `Create, Deliver & Support`, `Drive Stakeholder Value` and `Direct, Plan & Improve`¢ Updated syllabi with highlighted changes for `Create, Deliver & Support`, `Drive Stakeholder Value` and `Direct, Plan & Improve`¢ The `High Velocity IT` manuscript, syllabus, glossary and diagram pack remain unchanged¢ Practices Overviews and the product brochure remain unchanged¢ An up-to-date Quick Reference Guide with all the information you need¢ Updated Core Manuscripts, for `Create, Deliver & Support`, `Drive Stakeholder Value` and `Direct, Plan & Improve`¢ While the changes are quite large, they have been made for streamlining or refinement only¢ There have been no changes to the examinable content or the key concepts
Автор: Polt Richard, Wittrock Jon Название: The Task of Philosophy in the Anthropocene: Axial Echoes in Global Space ISBN: 1786610930 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781786610935 Издательство: Неизвестно Рейтинг: Цена: 68970.00 T Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ. Описание: The so-called anthropocene is one of the most widely discussed concepts in philosophy and critical theory at the moment. This volume takes a broad historical view of the topic, bringing together high profile theorists, including Luce Irigaray and Adrian Parr, providing a platform for highly original work in this important and timely field.
Автор: Sinnott Jan D., Rabin Joan S. Название: The Psychology of Political Behavior in a Time of Change ISBN: 3030382729 ISBN-13(EAN): 9783030382728 Издательство: Springer Цена: 93160.00 T Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ. Описание: This volume seeks to add a unique perspective on the complex relationship between psychology and politics, focusing on three analytical points of view: 1) psychology, politics, and complex thought, 2) bio/psycho/social factors of masculinity and power, and 3) underlying factors in political behavior.
Автор: Thomas K. Название: Time to Wake, 1 ISBN: 1098367642 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781098367640 Издательство: Неизвестно Рейтинг: Цена: 15170.00 T Наличие на складе: Невозможна поставка. Описание: Time to Wake is the first book in the Time to Wake Series. Book two, Not Right Now, coming soon! Senlis is your typical artist. Empath, hater of mornings, and the bearer of a strange name passed down from her grandmother. With a penchant for caffeine and a pet ghost, she's just trying to live her best life. Did she mention she also happens to devour souls? No? Well, it's a bit of a conversation killer... no pun intended. When new neighbors move in across the street, Senlis strikes up an unexpected friendship with the equally quirky Katie. The two get mixed up in a party circuit that leaves a string of missing girls- and a trail back to Senlis' less than human origins. At the center of it all is Hunter: a guy not smart enough to keep his distance. He's arrogant, frustrating, and terribly distracting... Just, please don't tell anyone she admitted that last part. Is Hunter involved in the mysterious murders? Or is he just in the wrong place at the right time? As she tries to figure out Hunter's motives, Senlis ends up learning what it means to be a Nephilim, and how her past is playing a role in the murders. Time to Wake is a new-adult paranormal romance novel brimming with paranormal suspense and quirky laughs!
Автор: KoЯ Michael Название: Parliaments in Time: The Evolution of Legislative Democracy in Western Europe, 1866-2015 ISBN: 0198766912 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780198766919 Издательство: Oxford Academ Рейтинг: Цена: 189290.00 T Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ. Описание: This volume provides a comparative explanation of the institutional evolution of parliaments since the intensification of political competition in the last third of the 19th century.
Автор: Shipan Charles R., Volden Craig Название: Why Bad Policies Spread (and Good Ones Don`t) ISBN: 1009100300 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781009100304 Издательство: Cambridge University Press Рейтинг: Цена: 91190.00 T Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ. Описание: Building on a deep theoretical foundation and drawing on numerous examples, we examine how policies spread across the American states. We argue that for good policies to spread while bad policies are pushed aside, states must learn from one another.
Автор: Shipan Charles R., Volden Craig Название: Why Bad Policies Spread (and Good Ones Don`t) ISBN: 1108958362 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781108958363 Издательство: Cambridge University Press Рейтинг: Цена: 29970.00 T Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ. Описание: Building on a deep theoretical foundation and drawing on numerous examples, we examine how policies spread across the American states. We argue that for good policies to spread while bad policies are pushed aside, states must learn from one another.
Автор: Duncanson C. Название: Forces for Good?: Military Masculinities and Peacebuilding in Afghanistan and Iraq ISBN: 1349328170 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781349328178 Издательство: Springer Рейтинг: Цена: 46570.00 T Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ. Описание: This book utilises the growing phenomenon of British soldier narratives from Iraq and Afghanistan to explore how British soldiers make sense of their role on these complex, multi-dimensional operations. It aims to intervene in the debates within critical feminist scholarship over whether soldiers can ever be agents of peace.
Казахстан, 010000 г. Астана, проспект Туран 43/5, НП2 (офис 2) ТОО "Логобук" Тел:+7 707 857-29-98 ,+7(7172) 65-23-70 www.logobook.kz
