Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Are Next to Worthless, and You Can Do Better, Gardner Dan

Автор: Tetlock, Philip & Gardner, Dan
Название: Superforecasting
ISBN: 1847947158 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781847947154
Издательство: Random House - Penguin
Рейтинг:
Цена: 9670.00 T
Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: Tetlock`s latest project - an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions - has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight.

Автор: Gardner, Dan
Название: Future Babble
ISBN: 0753522373 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780753522370
Издательство: Random House - Penguin
Рейтинг:
Цена: 14070.00 T
Наличие на складе: Невозможна поставка.
Описание: In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future. This book examines this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future.

Автор: Tetlock, Philip, Gardner, Dan
Название: Superforecasters
ISBN: 184794714X ISBN-13(EAN): 9781847947147
Издательство: Random House - Penguin
Рейтинг:
Цена: 13190.00 T
Наличие на складе: Поставка под заказ.
Описание: What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? This book offers an insight into what we can learn from this elite group. It also shows the methods used by the superforecasters which enable them to out perform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data.