On Moral Fiction, Gardner, John

Автор: Tetlock, Philip & Gardner, Dan
Название: Superforecasting
ISBN: 1847947158 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781847947154
Издательство: Random House
Рейтинг:
Цена: 10550.00 T
Наличие на складе: Ожидается поступление.
Описание: Tetlock`s latest project - an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions - has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight.

Автор: Tetlock Philip E., Gardner Dan
Название: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
ISBN: 0804136718 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780804136716
Издательство: Random House (USA)
Рейтинг:
Цена: 8580.00 T
Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: A New York Times Bestseller
An Economist Best Book of 2015
"The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow."
--Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal
Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?
In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."
In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course.
Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic.

Автор: Gardner John C
Название: Grendel
ISBN: 1473212014 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781473212015
Издательство: Orion
Рейтинг:
Цена: 11120.00 T
Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: A brilliantly-executed retelling of BEOWULF from the point of view of the monster, Grendel, with a new introduction by Adam Roberts.

Автор: Gardner, David G. Shoback, Dolores M.
Название: Greenspan`s Basic and Clinical Endocrinology, 10 Edition
ISBN: 1259589285 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781259589287
Издательство: McGraw-Hill
Рейтинг:
Цена: 82350.00 T
Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: Publisher's Note: Products purchased from Third Party sellers are not guaranteed by the publisher for quality, authenticity, or access to any online entitlements included with the product.

A full-color guide to the entire field of clinical endocrinology and its scientific underpinnings - updated with the latest breakthroughs and developments

Greenspan's Basic & Clinical Endocrinology delivers a succinct, leading-edge overview of the underlying molecular biology of the endocrine system and the latest perspectives on the diagnosis and treatment of specific diseases and disorders. Featuring an enhanced design that includes hundreds of full-color illustrations and clinical photographs, Greenspan's is a true must-have during traditional or integrated courses in endocrinology, endocrinology rotation, or exam prep in internal medicine and endocrinology and as reference for disease management.

Greenspan's provides clinically relevant coverage of metabolic bone disease, pancreatic hormones and diabetes mellitus, hypoglycemia, obesity, geriatric endocrinology, and many other diseases and disorders. Supporting this essential material is a handy appendix of normal hormone reference ranges across the lifespan.

Here's why Greenspan's is an essential tool for learning how to manage endocrine patients:

- The Tenth Edition is enhanced by updated content throughout each chapter
- NEW CHAPTERS on Transgender Endocrinology and Disorders of Sexual Determination and Differentiation
- Important chapter on Evidence-Based Endocrinology and Clinical Epidemiology
- Concise, balanced coverage of both scientific and clinical principles that guide patient management
- The best source for current concepts in endocrine pathophysiology to aid clinical decision making
- The most practical, current insights into diagnostic testing
- More than 270 full-color illustrations and clinical photographs

If you are in need of a well-illustrated, completely up-to-date guide to the entire field of clinical endocrinology, this trusted classic belongs on your desk or computer.

Автор: Gardner Lisa
Название: Look For Me
ISBN: 1784758612 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781784758615
Издательство: Random House
Рейтинг:
Цена: 4930.00 T
Наличие на складе: Есть
Описание: An utterly absorbing story about troubled families and twisted fates.` SHARI LAPENA, author of The Couple Next Door__________________SHOULD THEY SAVE HER - OR STOP HER?Detective DD Warren and Flora Dane are in a race against time to save a young girl`s life - or bring her to justice.

Автор: Gardner, Sally
Название: Wind in the wall
ISBN: 1471404986 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781471404986
Издательство: Bonnier Books
Рейтинг:
Цена: 12860.00 T
Наличие на складе: Невозможна поставка.
Описание: A beautifully crafted new fairy tale with a dark twist. Be careful what you wish for.

Автор: Davison Steven, Gardner Carolyn
Название: Nightmare Before Christmas 13 Days of Christmas
ISBN: 1368064574 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781368064576
Издательство: Random House (USA)
Рейтинг:
Цена: 7970.00 T
Наличие на складе: Нет в наличии.
Описание:

What happens when two holidays collide? Thirteen days of frighteningly festive fun Count down the days to see Jack, Sally, and their Halloween Town friends put a spooky spin on Christmas traditions

Jack Skellington is here from Halloween Town.

You'll notice his handiwork scattered around.

This year, he's decided to play Sandy Claws.

But when Halloween creates Christmas . . . you might see a few flaws.

From the minds of Tim Burton, Disney Imagineers, and acclaimed artist Jerrod Maruyama comes a picture book celebrating the classic animated film and the Disneyland ride it inspired.

Renowned Imagineers Steven Davison and Carolyn Gardner's text turns turtle doves and French hens into floating candles and true-love potions, accompanied by beloved Burton characters painted in a new art style that will appeal to fans of all ages.

Adorably spooky and frightfully festive, this tale will get fans of all ages into the holiday spirit

Автор: Gardner, Lisa
Название: Before She Disappeared
ISBN: 1787464377 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781787464377
Издательство: Random House
Рейтинг:
Цена: 8790.00 T
Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: When the author`s two children (a boy and a girl) were young, they often crawled into bed with his wife and him in the morning, he would make up stories about two little mice, Ticklemouse and his friend Lively, who lived in the same house as the little boy or girl, depending on who was listening. Ticklemouse was the author`s right hand and Lively his left, and they loved to tickle the kids whenever the mice got excited during the story. He never knew where the stories would go as he made them up, but over time, several were repeated often enough that they became memorable. When his kids grew up and had kids of their own, the author wrote down four of the stories and discovered that they were just as popular with his grandkids. These stories of shared laughter and fun became The Adventures of Ticklemouse. The author hopes you and your children or grandchildren enjoy them as much as his did and still do.

Автор: Gardner Lisa
Название: The Killing Hour: A Novel of Suspense
ISBN: 055339052X ISBN-13(EAN): 9780553390520
Издательство: Random House (USA)
Цена: 6130.00 T
Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: Each time he struck, he took two victims. Day after day, he waited for the first body to be discovered--a body containing all the clues the investigators needed to find the second victim, who waited...prey to a slow but certain death. The clock ticked--salvation was possible.

The police were never in time.

Years have passed; but for this killer, time has stood still.

As a heat wave of epic proportions descends, the game begins again. Two girls have disappeared...and the clock is ticking.

Rookie FBI agent Kimberly Quincy knows the killer’s deadline can be met. But she’ll have to break some rules to beat an exactingly vicious criminal at a game he’s had time to perfect.



For the Killing Hour has arrived....

Автор: Gardner, Lisa
Название: Never Tell
ISBN: 1784758647 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781784758646
Издательство: Random House
Рейтинг:
Цена: 6150.00 T
Наличие на складе: Поставка под заказ.
Описание: ITIL(R) Intermediate Release, Control and Validation - 4 daysThe four courses in Service Capability is aimed at students who need deep knowledge of the processes and the roles of ITIL. Service Lifecycle covered in the course but the primary focus is on processes, functions, roles and activities of its application and use by lifecycle. The courses within the Service Capability is role-based modules, each with a separate certification. Each course includes a grouping of processes and roles within ITIL is intended to give participants a specific knowledge of the practice and application related to the daily work.You`ll learn You get a deeper understanding of the part of the ITIL framework which deals with testing, validation and deployment of services. The course is aimed primarily at people working actively to plan and execute changes in IT services. You get a deeper understanding of the interaction between the requirements definition, testing and deployment as well as the importance of having a well functioning configuration management.Target groupThe target group of the ITIL Expert Qualification: Release, Control and Validation is:¢ Individuals who have attained the ITIL Foundation certificate in Service Management and who wish to advance to higher level ITIL certifications.¢ Individuals who require a deep understanding of ITIL Certificate in Release, Control and Validation processes and how it may be used to enhance the quality of IT service support within an organization.¢ IT professionals that are working within an organization that has adopted and adapted ITIL who need to be informed about and thereafter contribute to an ongoing service improvement programme¢ Operational staff involved in Change Management, Release and Deployment Management, Service Validation and Testing, Service Asset and Configuration Management, Request Fulfilment, Service Evaluation and Knowledge Management, who wish to enhance their role-based capabilities.This may include but is not limited to, IT professionals, business managers and business process owners.ExamThe examination is closed book and made up of multiple choice questions based on a scenario. Students will be allowed 120 minutes to answer the questions. You need at least 70% (28/40 points) to pass.PrerequisitesCandidates wishing to pass the exam for this qualification must already hold the ITIL Foundation Certificate.

Автор: Gardner Sally
Название: Mr. Tiger, Betsy, and the Blue Moon
ISBN: 0593095162 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780593095164
Издательство: Random House (USA)
Цена: 10410.00 T
Наличие на складе: Нет в наличии.

Автор: Dozois Gardner, Swanwick Michael
Название: City Under the Stars
ISBN: 1250756588 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781250756589
Издательство: Macmillan USA
Рейтинг:
Цена: 9190.00 T
Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание:

City Under the Stars completes a journey undertaken by Gardner Dozois and Michael Swanwick 25 years ago, when they published the novella The City of God. Over two decades later, the two realized there was more to the story, and began the work of expanding it. Now, after Gardner Dozois' tragic passing, the story can be told in full.

God was in his Heaven--which was fifteen miles away, due east.

Far in Earth's future, in a post-utopian hell-hole, Hanson works ten solid back-breaking hours a day, shoveling endless mountains of coal, within sight of the iridescent wall that separates what's left of humanity from their gods.

One day, after a tragedy of his own making, Hanson leaves York, not knowing what he will do, or how he will survive in the wilderness without work. He finds himself drawn to the wall, to the elusive promise of God. And when the impossible happens, he steps through, into the city beyond.

The impossible was only the beginning.